10/29 eod ES crash. Many people has been looking for clue what was going on last 15 min of mkt sell off. There were 500,000 ES contract traded on sell side within that time frame, that is 3X of daily ES vol. Some traders saw there were lots of buy orders placed on many mkt leader stocks at certain low level that seems waiting for getting hit some how. It was possible that some funds want to load those stocks cheap while using SPX future to crash the mkt. so that can get those order filled. If this is the case, we should see a nice recover today.
Another interesting thing need to mention, you all know I mentioned US$ and OIL's impact to mkt. with US$ hit 84 and OIL above, future is running up nicely. OIL, Gold, Agriculture, etc all have nice upside move, so do ES(SPX) and YM (Dow). This will make commodities stocks running up another 10-20%. and support DOW and SPX toward upside.
BUT if we get a very ugly GDP and Job number 8:30AM EDT (before mkt open), mkt could ends up with a B move down to 880-900 area.
so 2 cases are still 50-50 chance. Case (1) GDP and Job numbers are OK, mkt pull back from gap up or flat, test support 920-930 area to fill the gap, that start move up (bullish count intact) case (2) B wave down was started when SPX hit 970, the down side move of this B wave could lead mkt down to 880-890 area before a C wave up. I personally like the case (1) batter and consider the strong OIL and commodites, Case (1) have more odd to be played out.
No matter which case, we will let mkt decide which way it picks.
Another interesting thing need to mention, you all know I mentioned US$ and OIL's impact to mkt. with US$ hit 84 and OIL above, future is running up nicely. OIL, Gold, Agriculture, etc all have nice upside move, so do ES(SPX) and YM (Dow). This will make commodities stocks running up another 10-20%. and support DOW and SPX toward upside.
BUT if we get a very ugly GDP and Job number 8:30AM EDT (before mkt open), mkt could ends up with a B move down to 880-900 area.
so 2 cases are still 50-50 chance. Case (1) GDP and Job numbers are OK, mkt pull back from gap up or flat, test support 920-930 area to fill the gap, that start move up (bullish count intact) case (2) B wave down was started when SPX hit 970, the down side move of this B wave could lead mkt down to 880-890 area before a C wave up. I personally like the case (1) batter and consider the strong OIL and commodites, Case (1) have more odd to be played out.
No matter which case, we will let mkt decide which way it picks.
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